Data & Opinion — a periodic column reading the numbers behind U.S. leave law. Figures are from the dayfig.com 50-state paid-leave dataset (retrieved 2026-09-21) and the 2026 PFML program list. Opinions are the editor's.
The Numbers Behind the Patchwork
We pulled every mandated state's statute into one table and let the aggregates tell the story. Three things stand out.
1. The "1-employee" states now form the majority bloc
Of the 21 states that mandate paid sick leave, 11 reach down to a single employee — Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, DC, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Vermont, and Washington. A decade ago most mandates started at 10 or 25 workers; the median threshold has collapsed toward "everyone." For a small business, the practical question is no longer "am I big enough to be covered?" but "which of my states covers me at one employee?"
2. Accrual has converged on 1:30
14 of 21 mandated states use exactly one hour of leave per 30 hours worked. Only three (Illinois, Washington, Maine) use the slower 1:40; Vermont and Nevada sit at ~1:52; Rhode Island at 1:35; DC tiers by size. The convergence is not accidental — 1:30 has become the default legislative copy-paste, which is good news for multi-state payroll systems that can standardize on one rate.
| Accrual rate | States |
|---|---|
| 1:30 | 14 |
| 1:40 | 3 |
| 1:52 (VT, NV) | 2 |
| 1:35 (RI) | 1 |
| DC tiered | 1 |
3. PFML is the real 2026 story
While sick-leave thresholds barely moved, PFML went live in three new states in 2026: Delaware and Minnesota began paying benefits January 1, and Maine followed May 1. That brings the mandatory PFML cohort to 13 states plus DC. Maryland is enacted but delayed to 2028, and Virginia enacted in April 2026 with a 2028 start. The center of gravity in U.S. leave policy has shifted from "do you get a sick day?" to "how is your 12-week family leave funded?"
The Opinion Part
The patchwork is stabilizing, not exploding. Despite breathless annual "50-state change" roundups, the actual statutory movement in 2026 is modest: Connecticut's threshold stepped to 11+ (on its way to 1+ in 2027), and three PFML programs turned on. The scary part for employers isn't the volume of change — it's that each layer (sick leave, FMLA, PFML, local ordinance) is administered independently, so compliance cost scales with the number of overlapping regimes, not the number of laws.
Our prediction for 2027: Connecticut hitting 1-employee completes the New England wall (every New England state but New Hampshire will then mandate sick leave), and we expect at least one more Southern state to follow Virginia's 2026 PFML enactment. Employers in the Southeast should stop treating PFML as a coastal phenomenon.
What Employers Should Do Now
- Standardize payroll on a 1:30 accrual with an 80-hour cap — it satisfies the most states.
- Treat PFML contributions as a 2026 onboarding task if you have workers in DE, ME, or MN.
- Re-run the compliance checker every January; thresholds and PFML launches shift on the calendar year.
Dataset: dayfig.com 50-state paid-leave records (retrieved 2026-09-21). PFML status per Child Trends / Bipartisan Policy Center / LegalClarity (retrieved 2026-09-21). Opinion is editorial, not legal advice.